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0.8383402592135025, "ledgered_at": 1793758219.4521327, "mode": "live", "n": 506, "reason": "gain -0.00048 <= 0; z -0.149 <= 1.00", "reasons": [ "gain -0.00048 <= 0", "z -0.149 <= 1.00" ], "red_credit": "zero", "thresholds": { "cap_max": 0.33, "min_tasks": 100, "z_inclusive": false, "z_min": 1.0 }, "timestamps": { "decided_at": 1793758204.0633206, "finalized": 1793758204.3, "gather_start": 1793755665, "post_probe": { "end": 1793758203.2523153, "fetch_start": 1793757703.913231, "fetched": 1793757766.1502244, "run_start": 1793757912.0653856, "serve_start": 1793757783.1029246, "served": 1793757909.4026883, "start": 1793757703.913231 }, "pre_probe": { "checkpoint": "4df7fb61ddb22fd98a0c9518ae9cee3809edd7b4c97e5a32f1685372b465cc40", "finished_at": 1793751946.3142798, "partial": false, "reused": true, "started_at": 1793751528.0737443, "tasks": 7496 }, "training_result": 1793757781.8301446, "upload_deadline": 1793756565 }, "timing_s": { "fetch_s": 62.2, "h_wait_s": -303.9, "result_to_decision_s": 422.2, "run_s": 291.2, "serve_s": 126.3 }, "verdict": "rejected", "z": -0.14910943418811506 }, { "applied": "red", "batch_tasks_dropped": null, "candidate": "c86540c774402684a49e1d95c68084adf6f0926f92935fc34c6081eb0d8fc66b", "candidate_cap_rate": 0.08423913043478261, "candidate_pass": 0.838977508139813, "commitment": "a617f43cb8d5ea13d66ab4c63fdcb651ece0488a5b2c18e7672993cf962294d2", "decided_at_cr": "2026-11-03 20:29:01 CR (UTC-6)", "decision": "red", "epoch": 658, "head": "4df7fb61ddb22fd98a0c9518ae9cee3809edd7b4c97e5a32f1685372b465cc40", "head_pass": 0.8383402592135025, "ledgered_at": 1793759359.276459, "mode": "live", "n": 506, "reason": "z 0.178 <= 1.00", "reasons": [ "z 0.178 <= 1.00" ], "red_credit": "zero", "thresholds": { "cap_max": 0.33, "min_tasks": 100, "z_inclusive": false, "z_min": 1.0 }, "timestamps": { "decided_at": 1793759341.4828484, "finalized": 1793759348.2, "gather_start": 1793756928, "post_probe": { "end": 1793759340.6522288, "fetch_start": 1793758859.7100835, "fetched": 1793758922.2165453, "run_start": 1793759067.4983375, "serve_start": 1793758939.1819873, "served": 1793759064.8233345, "start": 1793758859.7100835 }, "pre_probe": { "checkpoint": "4df7fb61ddb22fd98a0c9518ae9cee3809edd7b4c97e5a32f1685372b465cc40", "finished_at": 1793751946.3142798, "partial": false, "reused": true, "started_at": 1793751528.0737443, "tasks": 7496 }, "training_result": 1793758947.5543222, "upload_deadline": 1793757828 }, "timing_s": { "fetch_s": 62.5, "h_wait_s": -322.1, "result_to_decision_s": 393.9, "run_s": 273.2, "serve_s": 125.6 }, "verdict": "rejected", "z": 0.1782362687997623 } ], "rule": "Promotion gate (held-out, prior-v1 baseline (irt-info weighting, live from 2026-11-02): each round (one per head) draws about N tasks from the public gate pool (affine_math + dapo) with inclusion probability pi_i proportional to sqrt(I_i), I_i = a_i'^2 P_i (1 - P_i) = the Fisher information of task i at the head's ability theta_h under a 2PL item response model (P_i = 1/(1+exp(-a_i(theta_h - b_i))), fitted on every recorded checkpoint x task pass/fail, refit daily; a_i' = a_i shrunk halfway (log scale) toward the pool median and clipped to [0.5, 2] x median; theta_h = MAP of the head's own gate-pool rollouts; per-task a_i, b_i and theta_h are private), mixed with a 10% uniform floor and capped at pi 0.10 (Poisson sampling). Seed = sha256(secret, block B, hash of B): the secret commitment is published when the round opens and B (a block after the upload deadline) before B exists; the secret is revealed when the round closes. The head is scored fresh on every drawn task (head_rollouts rollouts), every candidate with k_cand rollouts per task (independent request seeds); Delta = sum over envs of env share x Hajek (inverse-probability weighted) mean of (candidate rate - head rate); SE = sqrt(sampling + rollout variance + sigma_run^2), sigma_run = the round's sigma_run_floor (settings.sigma_run_floor): 0 = no floor, SE = sqrt(sampling + rollout variance), in rounds opened after the 2026-11-03 change (0.003 before; head run-to-run noise measured ~0); GREEN iff Delta > 0 AND z = Delta/SE > 1.00 AND cap-hit < cap_max AND >= min_scored tasks scored; cap-hit (task-level, from E507; before: Hajek capped share on affine_math < 0.20) = the share of all the candidate's rollouts on the scored baseline tasks (affine_math and dapo alike) that hit the token cap (the round's max_tokens: 12,288 tokens from the first round opened after the 12K switch of 2026-11-02, 8,192 before): RED if >= 33% of the candidate's baseline answers hit the token cap (cap_max = 0.33). z_bar = 1.00, fixed: GREEN needs z > 1.00 (from E553; E513-E552 used a time-relaxed bar; the exact bar of every decision is in its entry, thresholds.z_min). The turn batch is not excluded. Code: https://github.com/AffineFoundation/affine/blob/main/priors/baseline_v1.py) Earlier rule: Promotion gate (held-out, live from E271; text updated 2026-10-30): the candidate is promoted (GREEN) only if its weighted per-task gain over the head is positive and weighted_z > 1.00 (strict), the estimated cap-hit rate stays under 0.20 and at least 100 tasks are kept. Head and candidate are scored on the same tasks of a private held-out probe set (one round per head; set size and candidate samples are fixed per round: 1000 tasks and 4 candidate samples per task before, 2000 tasks and 8 candidate samples per task in rounds opened after 2026-11-01 14:19 CR, the first 4 with the same request seeds as head block 1; the head gets 4 samples on every task + 12 per kept task); gain = inverse-variance-weighted mean of the per-task pass-rate differences (weights from the round baseline), weighted_z = gain / SE, SE = sqrt(se_task^2 + sigma_run^2 (1 + 1/3)): se_task is the per-task standard error of the gain and sigma_run the head's run-to-run noise measured on the round's 3 replicate head runs (E271-E353: sigma_run floored at 0.022 = 2.2 points; from E354 no fixed floor, the measured value is used; rounds opened after 2026-11-01 14:19 CR: the pooled value over the last 20 finished rounds, frozen when the round opens, published as sigma_run in current.json). From E296 (free-file cutover) the turn batch is not excluded: every kept task counts. The round commitment is public (https://affine.io/gate/heldout/current.json); a round is revealed only if a GREEN closed it, and then only the GREEN turn (seed, task ids, head baseline, the GREEN candidate per-task grades: https://affine.io/gate/heldout/.json, https://affine.io/gate/reveal/.json); RED turns and their probe results are never published. RED = candidate discarded, head kept. In each entry, paired_z holds the weighted_z. History: E152-E153 paired z > -1, E154-E167 paired z >= -1.5, E168-E270 paired z > 0 on a 1000-task private probe sample minus the epoch batch (cap-hit < 0.20); held-out gate from E271. Scores update on pass and fail: from E169 a RED epoch is scored like a GREEN one (head probe vs the discarded candidate probed on that epoch's own batch tasks; zero flip credit for RED epochs before E169). Append-only. K=1 from E196: the epoch batch is one UID turn (see https://affine.io/k1.json); head and candidate are scored on the same private held-out tasks (see the rule above); GREEN = promoted and the turn UID joins the last-10 distinct GREEN payees (1/N each); RED = head kept, the turn earns nothing; no fixed-reference guard.", "updated_at": 1793760430.3083935, "updated_at_cr": "2026-11-03 20:47:10 CR (UTC-6)", "version": "sn120-promotion-gate-ledger-v1", "z_bar": { "computed_at": 1793760430.316155, "computed_at_cr": "2026-11-03 20:47:10 CR (UTC-6)", "current": 1.0, "from_epoch": 553, "history": "Fixed at z > 1.00 from E553; E513-E552 used a time-relaxed bar; the exact bar of every decision: entries[].thresholds.z_min.", "kind": "fixed", "rule": "GREEN needs z > 1.00 (fixed)." } }